In just a couple of weeks Microsoft's Windows 10, which was released on 29 July of this year, will begin its six month of public availability.
The last official momentum count from Microsoft for the user base of Windows 10 came on 06 October - the same day they revealed all of their new Windows 10 based hardware including the Surface Book and the new Lumia handsets.
At that point Microsoft indicated there were over 110 million users on Windows 10 including 8 million enterprise users. I took a closer look at the average number of installs per day based on that count and the numbers they provided on 26 August which included 75 million Windows 10 users.
There was an average decline of nearly one million installs between the August and October numbers dropping from 2.5 million installs per day to just 1.6 million.
It has now been over two months since we have seen any new momentum stats from Microsoft for Windows 10 but some recent speculation places that number around 140 to 150 million depending on who you get your info from.
If I choose the middle of those two numbers, 145 million, then that means the average number of daily Windows 10 installs is now just over 1 million per day. So, if the average installs remain around 1 million per day that would indicate that Microsoft will arrive at their one billion devices running Windows 10 sometime around the end of April 2019.
That gives them just three months or so to spare to reach their goal of one billion devices in 2-3 years.
As you can see it appears the two year goal is not going to be possible based on the current averages and, if they maintain their current average, they will only just make the three year part of that goal based on those numbers.
I expect there will be a very large surge of Windows 10 installations next year in the Spring/Summer timeframe as the 29 July 2016 deadline for getting the OS for free arrives. That will certainly help the overall install base numbers overall as users finally upgrade just so they get the OS at no cost.
So, that concludes today's math lesson but why all the remedial math anyway?
Simple - there are some reports on social media that Microsoft may be looking to push those numbers up now instead of waiting to see what happens.
Two specific users have shared images of very limited options when they are offered the upgrade for Windows 10 on their current operating system.
First, this user is only seeing an Upgrade now option:
Second, this user has more choices but they are limited to Upgrade now or Start download, upgrade later:
On a Windows 8.1 PC. Mostly full screen pop-up. No clear "No thanks" button, just download Windows 10 now or later. pic.twitter.com/RRoaFMST9r— Brad Chacos (@BradChacos) December 11, 2015
There is one other variation that I have seen a report on and that comes from Woody Leonhard over at InfoWorld. It includes this image with options that are limited to Upgrade now or Upgrade tonight.
All of the above dialog boxes can be closed without selecting one of the offered options but many users will not be aware of that. Just click the red "X" in the upper right hand corner. You can also use GWX Control Panel to disable the upgrade prompts and downloads.
If you are still on Windows 7 or 8.1 are you seeing these limited options as well?
What do you think of Microsoft apparent efforts to get more users over to Windows 10?